Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov attends a ceremony marking 240th anniversary of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea May 13, 2023. 

Alexey Pavlishak | Reuters

Mystery continues to surround the fate of the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, who Ukraine claimed it had killed in a missile strike on the Russian naval headquarters in Crimea.

Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video in which Admiral Viktor Sokolov was seen attending a video conference with Russian defense officials on Tuesday — although it is unknown if that meeting actually took place that day or when the video was filmed. Neither Sokolov or the naval commanders speak during the video.

A top British defense analyst questioned the authenticity of the Russian video Wednesday, saying it looks “odd” and was not conclusive evidence that Sokolov is still alive.

Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Viktor Sokolov (left) appears on the screen at the meeting that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held with ministry officials in Moscow, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2023.

Russian Defense Ministry | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

“We’ve looked at the video, it’s not very clear and it jumps around quite a lot. We’ve located the person on the video who looks most like Sokolov, and it may be him, but it’s not a completely clear match,” defense and security analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News Tuesday.

“It could be Sokolov, looking at previous photographs of him. On the other hand, there’s still no proof that this video is really current,” he said, adding that “there’s a lot of evidence that Sokolov was in the building that was hit on Friday by a couple of Storm Shadow missiles.”

“So, it is possible that Sokolov lives. But I think the Russians would have to produce more convincing evidence than this if they want to be taken seriously on this particular issue.”

Viktor Sokolov attends a ceremony marking the 240th anniversary of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea, on May 13, 2023.

Alexey Pavlishak | Reuters

Clarke noted that it was “odd that producing a rather vague video and saying he’s here somewhere, and leaving it to news organizations like us to try to work out who it might be, is less than clear in the message they were trying to send.”

Awkward for Ukraine

The emergence of the video certainly puts Ukraine in an awkward position as it appeared to directly contradict Ukraine’s claims on Monday that its strikes on the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol Friday had killed the commander and 33 other naval officers, as well as injuring over 100 other personnel.

Ukraine did not say how it had counted the number of dead and injured and had not named any alleged victims.

After the video’s emergence, Ukraine conceded that Sokolov’s death had not been confirmed, saying it was still “clarifying information” around the attack, stating on Telegram:

“As is known, 34 officers were killed as a result of a missile attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Available sources claim that among the dead was the commander of the Russian Army. Many still have not been identified due to the disparity of body fragments,” Ukraine’s special operations forces said.

“Since the Russians were urgently forced to publish an answer with an apparently alive Sokolov, our units are clarifying the information,” it added.

Earlier, the Kremlin said it had no comment on Ukraine’s claim that Sokolov had been killed in the attack.

Why it matters

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet warships take part in Russia’s Navy Day celebrations in the port city of Novorossiysk on July 30, 2023.

Stringer | Afp | Getty Images

It noted that attacks on the fleet in recent days “have been more damaging and more coordinated than thus far in the war” but noted that the “physical damage to the Black Sea Fleet is almost certainly severe but localised.”

“The fleet almost certainly remains capable of fulfilling its core wartime missions of cruise missile strikes and local security patrols” but it said that the Russian navy’s “ability to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports will be diminished.”

“It also likely has a degraded ability to defend its assets in port and to conduct routine maintenance.”

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